Throwing Darts

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The Prime Minister 's chief adviser, Dominic Cummings , has told to journalists read "Philip Tetlock's super forecasters, instead of political experts who don't know what you're talking about".

His comments followed criticized the resignation of the Downing Street adviser Andrew Sabisky,.

Mr Sabisky himself has described as a super-forecaster.

What is super forecasting is?

The idea behind a super-forecasting, some people tend to make better predictions - Even as experts in their respective field.

This could be anything, whether a currency is getting stronger, a country is invaded, other, or there is unrest in a city.

Andrew Sabisky resigned, says that he wanted to prove that a "distraction" How does it work?

American psychologist Philip Tetlock came with The Good judgment project as part of a U.S. government competition to find better ways to predict.

He saw thousands of predictions by experts and found they were no better than if you had selected results on the coincidence principle, which he throw in the comparison to chimpanzees of darts on a Board.

Prof Tetlock then thousands of people to be asked to come up with numbers for the odds on A Number of things happened, such as a nuclear test by North Korea in the next three months.

A few months later, he chose The Most successful of the forecasters - and found, in the later exercises, they continued to make better predictions, as those of The Intelligence services, had access to secret information.

What the science is behind it?

super forecasters calculate the probability of something happening And Then adjust so that in the case of a change of circumstances.

So, if one of them was looking at the chances of North Korea conducting a nuclear test, which was the Starting Point , the country had, on average, the tests every 30 months - which is a 10% chance would be a test in the next three months.

This number was doubled to 20%, because North Korea threatened was to perform tests.

super forecasters should be to keep particularly well, their personal opinions from the calculations.

The Other important component of The Method is that you take the estimated probabilities by A Number of super-forecasters, and an average of them to a final result.

How successful is it?

let's look at a few of the great events in The Past few years have not been said in General before a British EU exit and the election of US President Donald Trump .

super forecasters did not accurately predict the UK's EU-exit, put the chances of a Leave the vote to 23% in June 2016 - the month of the referendum, according to Bloomberg.

you were previously told above was a few months before, but they had adapted, the probability of down.

But, super forecasters appears to have the race in 2016 - The First hurdle in the presidential.

The successes of other uses from super forecasting are harder to know.

But the idea could be useful in areas of finance, welfare associations, as they should distribute the relief goods.

And seek with the call, the U.S. secret service, the characteristics of the super-forecasters in the setting, rather than the prioritisation of candidate-types.

boris johnson, dominic cummings, conservative party, uk government, civil service

Source of news: bbc.com