Piers Forster

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With houses under water, in South Yorkshire , near record-high water in Venice, and burgeoning forest fires in Australia, many people are wondering whether and how Climate Change is connected to these extreme Weather events.

What can we say about The Role of Climate Change in the event of flooding, such as seen in South Yorkshire ? There are some basic factors which help to explain the extent of the downpours, and other places in Yorkshire, Derbyshire and Lincolnshire.

The very scientific sounding Clausius-Clapeyron equation is a key element.

Clausius and Clapeyron, the family name of the German and French meteorologists, who discovered That a warmer atmosphere contains more moisture. For each 1 ° C increase in temperature, can keep the air, about 7% more water vapor.

If You are the types of Storms , the rapid cooling, You can get heavy rain fall fast from the clouds, as it is in parts of England last week.

soldiers help to the flooded village of Fishlake in Yorkshire " As the temperatures are warmer, we get more intense rain brings more flooding, even if The Number of Storms That do not change on our coasts," said Professor Piers Forster from the University of Leeds.

", to warmer When used in conjunction, wetter winters in General, as expected, by the Climate Change , the soil has a higher likelihood of flooding becomes more and more saturated, so That any precipitation will be. "

This is essentially the scenario That will be played in Fishlake last week.

we see more flooding in the near future? British scientists observe and predict 10-20% commitments increase in rainfall in the wettest of days, so it's very possible That we will see other examples of this type of rain in this winter.

In the coastal areas, the chances of floods are made worse by Sea Level rise.

However, the chances of an area floods or not, is also complicated by human factors such as agriculture, the construction of houses on flood plains and the vagaries of The British Weather .

What is it about Venice? Venice, the have seen, More Than 80% of The City , a Unesco world heritage site, under the water, when the tides were highest.

The Mayor of Venice, was very quick to attribute the flooding to Climate Change . Critics have noted, however, That delays and corruption in connection with the installation of a large flood defence System , only a limited damage.

high water in Venice, the worst in 50 Years , climate scientists see a clear connection between rising temperatures and flooding.

"rising Sea Level is rising worldwide and it is increasing in the Adriatic sea," said Prof Gabi Hegerl, University of Edinburgh.

"Venice is also a little weaker, so That You have a bit of a double whammy.

"The immediate flood of risen was caused by the Sirocco wind and the tide, but it would not have been so great without The Sea as Well . "

What about the Australian fire - where is the climate link? The latest on health and Climate Change "Found That the exposure of people through fires had doubled since 2000".

"forest fires lead not only to death and health damage, but has Found significant economic and social impact".

A picture of the Copernicus satellite show the extent of the fires in New South Wales In Australia, have come much earlier and in a larger scale than in the past.

While Climate Change is not directly the cause of a fire such as this - it is an important factor in creating The Right conditions for The Fire .

"In regions such as Australia, where we had prolonged periods of dry, You can not definitely attribute this to Climate Change , but environmental conditions are increasingly ripe for this kind of things," said Prof Nigel Arnell of the University of Reading

", The precursor to all go in the direction of the increased risk of fire in these fire-prone regions. "

Other researchers also refer to indirect links.

"Most of the droughts are Found to be in part caused by Climate Change ," said Prof Piers Forster .

"Stronger winds, with more energy in the climate System , adding to the risk of fire and make them more intense and move faster. "

there are common climatic factors in all these events? Very much, say The Scientists .

"The whole climate signal is That when it is warmer, it will burn more easily; if You have higher seas, it is easier to flood," said Prof Gabi Hegerl.

"And if You still need more moisture in the atmosphere, the same amount of precipitation systems, the rain harder and harder - this is something we see in The World , and has the human greenhouse gas signal in it.

"In extreme events, That is, where Climate Change is biting us. "

the climate models predicted these events? "Our climate models, project The Future are at my best, when considering the mean values," said Prof Arnell.

"they are not designed necessarily to compare good to the Extreme, so we have a prediction of extremes, against the. "

Other researchers say That what we are experiencing now, is very much in line with models, but That The World is not yet sufficiently prepared for the magnitude of what we are Seeing now.

Bush fires in Australia were drought ends with the ongoing "I think there is a case to be made That The Scientists said-That the social and environmental impacts of such events," said Professor Piers Forster .

"But the projection of the global temperature change and the associated impacts on the climate has already been said Well before, since The First Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report was published in 1990 or even earlier. "

How does the insurance industry view all this? Those in the insurance industry say, That where once it was the earthquake and hurricanes That the largest losses, forest fires and Storms have, in the meantime, The Key loss driver.

While much of the thrust in dealing with Climate Change has focused on cutting carbon, in the insurance company You are more That help the people to adapt to the changing world.

", retrofitting of buildings is not as sexy as reimagining an energy System - it is a simple way to make what looks for a lot of customization," said Greg Lowe , global head of resilience and sustainability at Aon.

"people love to talk about a green New Deal , but I don't really see any discussions about what needs to happen from an adjustment of perspective. "

Mr Lowe pointed to the example of Florida, in the aftermath of which caused 65 deaths and $27bn worth of damage. It was a complete revision of The Building regulations in The Wake of The Storm has changed massively, the profile of the losses in this part of the USA.

we Can say That individual events are in the context of Climate Change ? For years, when confronted with extreme Weather events like the fires in Australia or floods in South Yorkshire , The Scientists have trotted out the "we can't attribute a single event to Climate Change " mantra.

But this view has changed.

"don't You , That Climate Change is the sole cause for an extreme event," said Dr Friederike Otto of the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford.

"But You can look at individual events and to Work Out how far Climate Change alters the probability That they will occur or their intensity "

This view is also from other experts in The Field .

"This was true developed in 2013 for The Last major IPCC report, but also the science to the event-attribution (attribution of specific Weather events, which has to a certain cause) really, since then," said Prof Piers Forster .

"Now, with individual extreme Weather events, we can say with a good degree of certainty That Climate Change played a role. "

Others believe That The Link between Climate Change and extreme events, are now as strong as The Link between Smoking cigarettes and lung cancer.

"You can never have a direct connection and say, my grandpa died of lung cancer due to Smoking, because You can't figure out how the cancer originated exactly; there may be other factors," said Prof Gabi Hegerl.

"But You can say for sure is That , if You smoke, the likelihood of coming down with lung cancer has increased enormously. The same methods were applied to the climate Problem . "

What cold is - how is Climate Change impact? It is one thing for sure, and certainly, on Climate Change and the cold Weather like snow Storms - You can bet your last dollar That the President, Donald Trump will tweet about You , the query of The Absence of Global Warming !

But the researchers say That the cold waves often have a similar climate signal, but it might be more difficult to see, in a snow That hits a region, in comparison with a heat wave That affects the country as a whole.

"I think it is easier in the big events," said Dr. Otto.

"heat waves, or rainfall events, climate models are more reliable on this larger scale, and You can pool the data of observation. This is easier, as the localized events. "

uk climate change protests, floods, wildfires, climate change, intergovernmental panel on climate change

Source of news: bbc.com