Peter Barnes

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you can Check the latest survey trends with the Poll Tracker , which measures how People say they are going to vote in the next Federal Election .

Party support: December 11, 2019 Contracting party Average (in%) the likely range of CON 43 (39-47) LAB 33 (29-37) LD 12 (8-16) SNP-4 --* BRX 3 (0-7) GRN 3 (0-7) PC 0 --* UKIP 0 --* TIGfC 0 --* Trend line shows the Average voting intention, based on the individual surveys * As the SNP and Plaid Cymru campaign, the only in Scotland and Wales respectively, and the UKIP and The Independent group for change candidates in some areas, the margins of error for their support in the UK is expected to be less than +/- 1% analysis of the BBC's senior political analyst Peter Barnes11 December 2019Over the course of The Campaign , almost every single Election , had the Conservatives ahead by at least 6%. So, if you like, it would not end up with The Most votes will be a serious mistake.

labour market have consistently in a clear second place, a long way, of the Liberal Democrats in the third.

The Brexit-The Party launched The Campaign in around 10% of the votes, But fell back dramatically - not to riding, partly as a result of your decision to The Best of Conservative-held seats.

In Scotland the picture is very different. In The Few polls the SNP has always been clear leadership with the Conservatives in second place.

Again, if that's not the result, then the polls were severely flawed.

For most of The Campaign , there were marked differences between The Polling companies. But all of them have suggested that the breed has in The Last Two Weeks .

of every 100 People likely to vote on.

43 say, you vote CON, But it could be between 39-47 32 say they will vote LAB, But it could be between 28-36 12 say they will vote LD, But it can say between 8-16 3, you agree to BRX, But it could be between 0-7 2 say they will vote green, But it could be between 0-6 3 say they will vote say SNP 0, You votes PC

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100, which is likely to vote on. Of every 100 People likely to vote on.

There' s about a 90% chance that the true support for each party in the areas shown at The Top , which means there' s in 10 chance that it is outside of these areas.

* As the SNP and Plaid Cymru campaign, the only in Scotland and Wales respectively, the limits of error for their support in the UK is expected to be less than +/- 1%

Seat projection what most of the surveys do not tell us, is how votes are converted into seats in The House of Commons.

There have been several attempts to do this, though, with large polling samples, which enable complex analyses of the level of support for each party among different demographic groups.

The Central forecast by The Last YouGov projection is a Conservative majority of 28. But it is important to consider the possible results of their analysis means.

For the Conservatives, The Range is 311-367 seats. So, on this basis, The Other can not be excluded in the hung Parliament - and neither are a large majority.

to Compare where the parties stand on core issues such as Brexit, education and the NHS.

Previous updates from Peter Barnes - 9. December 2019Going in The Last Days of the Election campaign, the Conservative lead over labour market remains solid.

The latest surveys, all the Conservatives in the low-to mid-40s and work in the low 30s, the percentage in the whole of the UK as a whole.

The Lib Dems are in a tight 11-14% range and the Brexit Party are in the low single-digit range - a long way down compared to where they started.

Over the course of The Campaign , both major parties have seen their Poll ratings go, But The Gap between the two is More or less where it was five weeks ago.

When Sir John Curtice has pointed Out , if the result on Thursday, in line with the figures, the Conservatives are on course for a decent majority in The House of Commons.

a few should come Out More surveys in the next Three Days - as well as a further YouGov-seat-projection - so that could still change. But there's a pretty big change to a different overall result would have to be.

Of course, you could be wrong all of the systematically - it wouldn't be the First Time that turned Out to be true.

But if you use the surveys as a guide to what could happen, then the message is clear.

2. December 2019The latest batch of polls gives More weight to the suggestion that the Conservatives raise, the one consistent feature of the Election campaign has slowed.

That doesn't mean you can't go up any further, But for the moment, it seems as if the support for them is relatively static.

Meanwhile, the Labour Party is moving to The Top - apparently mainly on the cost of the Liberal Democrats .

If this trend continues, then we could be on course for another Election where the two major parties to capture a very large share of the total vote.

It would still need to move another large, though, reaching the 84% that the Conservatives and Labour between them in the year 2017.

And there are only ten More Days .

Catch upOur Poll Tracker by smoothing Out the bumps in polling, including old surveys.

its influence disintegrates, cut in half, every week, But still means our Average may look a little behind the current figures.

The differences are all smaller than the error limit, But if parties to collect or to lose, to share, could we add a point or two, what is the Average of The Last polls, you would say.

This is not so obvious, if the parties all move in Parallel - so we is going to look a little for all, and the differences between the parties in a similar way.

But , with the Conservatives at a standstill, it could take a while to show before our Tracker starts, the labour market, pent-up demand, as recent polls suggest they may be.

28 November 2019YouGov seat projection has received a lot of interest.

A lot of it is down to the fact that when did the same exercise in 2017, they were quite successful in predicting the overall result and the result in most individual choice.

your new projection the Conservative places to 359 seats, Labour 211, the SNP on 43, Lib Dems on 13, and other parties, the 24. This points to a Conservative majority of 68.

However, this still needs to be treated with caution for several reasons.

It is still based on polling, which, as we know, always a mistake. The Margin of error for this model ranges from a Conservative landslide to a very small majority.

While the model uses a sophisticated technology, in order to see how The National polling play trends in the individual choice circles it is always very difficult to take into account, for the truly local factors, such as, for example, a prominent local independent candidate.

Also, some other recent surveys have suggested that the work force have moved a bit closer to the Conservatives than they were in the YouGov survey.

This would clearly have an impact on the size of the overall majority, and the polls will continue to move between now and 12 December.

So, while the projection is certainly very interesting, it should not be treated as a reliable prognosis, what will be the result of the Election .

ConvergenceOne other feature of recent polls is that they come with a clear exception, there is More consistency between the various polling seems to company.

When you look it gave back to the beginning of October, very large differences between them.

Now, each of the parties seems to be, as he is in a relatively narrow range about the surveys: the low 40s for the Conservatives; just under 30% for the work, and the mid-teens for the Lib Dems.

The outlier is Opinium's latest Poll , the Conservatives on 47% and the Liberal Democrats down to 12%.

of course, convergence does not mean that the polls can tell us what will be the end result. There are still More Than Two Weeks and The Lesson for 2015 is that there is a consistent error in almost all polls.

25. November 2019Overall the polls from The Last week have shown, the same pattern of movement, as they have throughout The Campaign .

in particular, the Conservatives went, until The Party goes back into the BBC Poll Tracker and the Brexit to continue to fall.

The First characters in the raw numbers-polling to level off, though, that the Conservative shift is beginning. Several pollsters they have one or two points below its peak in the current figures.

Nevertheless, a result in this direction would not mean your voice has been about flat over the country.

Other researchers have said that they will follow.

plaid cymru, conservative party, liberal democrats, change uk, snp (scottish national party), labour party, green party (england and wales), ukip (uk independence party), brexit party

Source of news: bbc.com