Mood

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Customers in Kirkgate market in Leeds

Lockdown is to facilitate the start.

in the UK, we can meet more people, while in England some of the children have re-opened in the school and car showrooms and open-air markets.

some scientists, including those advising the government, But in the mutinous Mood - said the Minister to act quickly.

And the lifting of the restrictions has been described as a "dangerous moment", also by England's Deputy chief medical officer.

So how dangerous is the position we find ourselves in?

things are far better than lockdown came.

It is estimated that 100,000 new infections Every Day in England on 23. In March, The Day when Boris Johnson announced strict curbs on our daily lives.

This compares with around at The Moment .

"is It somewhere in The Range of 10-fold less, but still significantly," Dr. Adam Kurcharski of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine told The Bbc .

The speed with which The Virus spread is also much slower.

The R-number - the average number of people each infected person passes The Virus on to about three in lockdown came.

this meant That 10 people were over coronavirus on 30 others.

Now the R to 0. 7-0. 9, i.e., are expected to 10 people, pass it on around eight other.

However, the UK is proposing is in One of the worst locations worldwide for the exit lockdown.

And it is remarkable that the government remains on its own coronavirus alert system for England to "level 4" instead of "level 3", if the social distance limitations are relaxed.

What is the danger?

The Chief science adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance , warns that it "calls for not a lot of room" for maneuver and the data is "caution".

R near the point where the cases are rising, and "we will see new infections daily very substantial rate".

Relaxing lockdown means that we come into contact with more people, and this increases the Chance for The Virus to spread.

The restrictions are expected to be relaxed to have a small role in the spread of the coronavirus, but the exact effect is unknown.

uncertainty is a particular Problem with schools. The government's proof could not get a picture of the impact.

There is also the uncertainty of how We Are responding to the easing of The Rules . Behavioral scientists advised the government to appreciate only half of the people are isolated, they are for Seven Days , if sick.

Why are scientists concerned?

During the pandemic, scientists and politicians were following the same script.

But there is Now a between which, the advice of the government and those "according to science".

More Than a dozen sage members of the Committee, to advise the government, have spoken, said, ' we should wait until it is fully functional and in cases to come.

"basically, we lift the lid on a boiling pan and it is just the bubble," argues Prof Calum Semple.

It is an essential consequence of the repeal of the block Now - it can lock us into the current number of cases.

There are around 8,000 infections per day. If the easing of restrictions of the R-number in the vicinity, then we will continue around 8,000 infections Every Day .

Wait until the fall would continue to control The Virus easier, and to give more response time if there is a "second wave". However, keeping a pain requires lockdown liable for more.

What is contact tracing?

There is also the uncertainty about how effective contact tracing is in the UK. to replace

The goal of lockdown for all, with isolation, for some, is quick to identify and isolate anyone who comes in close contact with someone who is infected.

The strategy is surpassed As One of the most important reasons, some Asian countries, on the control of coronavirus (South Korea around 270 deaths, compared with More Than 39,000 in the UK) has.

However, there is The Risk that the expected identical results.

The UK is not with GPS tracking, to ensure people do as they are told, such as South Korea , or the people in the quarantine centers in Hong Kong .

" speed is crucial to find the contacts, before you are infectious, but there are concerns about how long.

And fails to test the mass, when a cluster of cases appears to be in the area of influence was richer than tracing contacts.

the estimates of the effectiveness of the test-and trace-vary greatly, from 5% to 30% of infections reduce, depending on how optimistic The Number crunching.

we Will have a second wave?

The Number of people who have been infected, remains low, so that any immunity is also low.

this means That there is the potential for a second wave, but whether it happens depends on the decisions of the government and how we react to it.

The Plan is the gradual introduction of measures, And Then watch what happens.

"With a cautious, step-by-step approach, I do not think that The Risk is a substantial increase particularly high; let's not call it a second wave, we call it a second bump," said Prof Mark Woolhouse from the University of Edinburgh.

A sudden increase in the cases, is considered to be unlikely.

Dr. Kucharski said: "I think we will see a huge, exponential increase of the numbers in a couple of weeks.

"It may take some time to pass for this, if the transmission in clusters; it is Late Summer or autumn, or even winter, depending on what happens. It may be that we for a long time. "

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Source of news: bbc.com