Margaret Ferrier

---

By Philip SimBBC Scotland political correspondent

SNP leader Humza Yousaf is on The Cover of Time Magazine This Week , feted as a " trailblazer shaping our time".

But after a hefty by-election defeat in Rutherglen and Hamilton West, his party's future feels in uncertain shape.

The electoral map has not changed Overnight - The SNP is still The dominant force in Scottish politics, comfortable in power at Holyrood and Miles Ahead of its rivals in terms of seats at Westminster.

The scale of The Swing to Labour in Rutherglen does raise questions about whether that will remain The case, though.

Throughout The Nicola Sturgeon era, The SNP was an electoral steamroller. In The Early Hours of Friday - in Mr Yousaf's first real test - The engines went cold.

The SNP can find various ways to console themselves about this result - a low-turnout, high-visibility by-election with The Shadow of Margaret Ferrier hanging Over It .

They also point to tactical voting and The amount of resource Labour had poured into The Seat - UK leader Keir Starmer is not going to make multiple visits to every Scottish target in The General election Campaign .

But again, that 20-point swing is inescapable. It means Labour actually have far more target seats than they perhaps expected.

They have a newfound sense of momentum, and a change in The Narrative on their side.

And it leaves Mr Yousaf heading into his first conference As Party leader with big questions to answer.

He has literally invited a debate about his plans for independence, and it is perhaps not helpful to be trying to swing delegates in behind a strategy which involves winning lots of seats at a moment when many of his MPs will be nervously eyeing their majorities.

Some have already tabled amendments to The Plan , and further questions are being raised in light of this result; Mr Yousaf cannot be wholly confident that his vision will necessarily win The Day .

This result opens an additional path for dissent, at a time when there is already plenty of it washing around.

Mr Yousaf has been more tolerant of his backbenchers speaking out, but there has still been a - part of a legendary dynasty in The SNP, now facing suspension from The Holyrood group and a figurehead for dissatisfied MSPs.

The SNP's 16 year Holyrood reign

All of that is uncomfortable for a leader whose; Kate Forbes , whom he beat in The SNP leadership election, casts a Long Shadow from The Back Benches , a Constant Reminder that others with ambitions to lead have recently been available.

Ms Forbes is by no means The only such figure biding their time. Ash Regan was quick out of The blocks to call The Rutherglen result a " wake-up call".

Would such a public response have been permitted under The previous leadership?

It hasn't even been a year since there was a but perhaps what makes Mr Yousaf's job secure for now is that The Party is in such a tough spot that nobody would actually Want It .

Perhaps Ms Sturgeon was always going to be a near-impossible act to follow, having swept a series of UK elections dominated by Conservative figures like Boris Johnson , with constitutional rows providing anti-establishment Campaign fodder.

Mr Yousaf has succeeded her at a point where Labour can pitch themselves as The Insurgent change option, while his own party has been The establishment force at Holyrood for 16 years.

That is The Job he signed up for, though. He has already borrowed a Sturgeonism to insist that The buck stops with him.

Time to reflect

Mr Yousaf has a little time on his side, with The election perhaps a year away.

He says his party needs to " reflect on what we have to do to regain The Trust of The people" - which sounds a lot like The sort of thing Anas Sarwar was saying just a few months ago.

The by-election also provided a chance to road-test some messaging, to workshop attack lines against Labour and gauge The Mood of The voting public.

A year is an eternity in politics, and it is still possible that Mr Yousaf can shore up his party's pro-independence base with a constitution-heavy Campaign - he has few other options.

But if The electorate buys The General election as a clear choice about who will form The Next government, The SNP could be squeezed into third-wheel territory.

Mr Yousaf needs to come up with some answers sharpish - or The Questions will soon start to swirl about how long he has at The Top .

Related Topics

Source of news: bbc.com