Jonathan Ball

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Coronavirus is not over yet for a long time. Some countries are still dealing with large epidemics, But also those who currently control The Virus of fear "The Second wave".

the Second Phase of The Spanish Flu a century ago was more deadly than The First .

a second wave is inevitable? And how bad could it be?

firstly, what is a second wave?

You can. the waves on The Sea The Number of infections goes up and comes down again - each cycle is a "wave" of coronavirus.

However, There is no formal definition.

"It's not particularly scientific, how do you define a wave is arbitrary," Dr. Mike Tildesley, University of Warwick, told The Bbc .

Some describe the ascension as a second wave, But it is often a bumpy First Wave . This happens in some US States.

To say that one has finished the wave, The Virus had been brought under control and cases fallen substantially. to start

For a second wave, you would need a sustained increase in infections. New Zealand and Beijing are not in this position.

But to start, the criteria for a second wave.

Will come in a second wave to the United Kingdom?

The Answer lies almost entirely with the choices we make, so it could go in both directions.

"I really believe that at The Moment There is great Uncertainty . But to be honest it is something I'm very concerned," says Dr. Tildseley.

The potential is clearly There - The Virus is Still Around and it is not less deadly or contagious as the beginning of the year 2020.

Just to be thought to have been infected and There is no guarantee that you are all immune.

"The Evidence is The vast majority of People are still vulnerable, in fact, when we lift all the measures that we are back where we were in February," says Dr Adam Kucharski from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

"It's almost Like starting From Scratch again. "

What is the trigger of a second wave could be?

Lift the lockdown restrictions too far.

locks have massive disturbance caused around The World - the destruction of jobs, impact on the health of the People and the children out of school - But you are in control of The Virus .

"is The ultimate puzzle of How To retain control, while minimizing daily disruptions," said Dr. Kucharski.

no one is 100% sure how far we can go.

This is the reason why measures are to be lifted in stages and new opportunities for the control of Corona Virus, such as contact-tracing, or face-coverings.

People shopping in Norwich how lockdown will be eased in the UK

"In the UK and the neighbouring countries, flare-ups could happen fairly quickly, if the measures are lifted, beyond The Point , the transmission is controlled," said Dr. Kucharski.

This is already in Germany, where 650 People tested positive for The Virus .

It is not a big problem, if a Cluster can quickly be detected, local lock have to be introduced and the spread of The Virus stopped.

Otherwise, you contribute to a second wave.

South Korea , widely praised for his handling of the coronavirus, had to due to such clusters.

a second wave the same as The First ?

Something is seriously wrong if it works.

The value of R - The Number of People each infected person passed The Virus on an Average - 3 at the beginning of the pandemic.

It meant was The Virus spreads quickly, But our behavior has changed, we are social distancing, and it is difficult to see how R will get that high again.

Dr. Kucharski told The Bbc : "No country will just raise everything and go Back To normal.

"Even countries without the control of coronavirus - Like Brazil and India are not on a R-3. 0. "

If you begin to have the cases re-grow, it is likely to be relatively slow.

But , a second wave could, in theory, to be larger until the end of The First , because so many People are still vulnerable.

"[But ] if the falls again, we climb back lockdown to suppress a second wave, that is always an option for us," says Dr. Tildseley.

what will happen a second wave? Will make winter even worse?

Dr. Kurcharski, says local flare-ups seen could be repealed, in "The Coming weeks or months" as measures.

But that does not mean that a guaranteed second wave.

Dr. Tildseley says: "If the measures are relaxed significantly, we may end up with a second wave in the late August or early September. "

Winter can be a Crucial Time than other Corona-not to spread The Virus more easily then.

If we could only lead to the control of The Virus , also a small seasonal boost to the spread of viruses.

"Spring, undoubtedly, Prof Jonathan Ball helped us,", a virologist at the University of Nottingham says.

"A second wave is almost inevitable, especially since we go in the direction of The Winter .

"The Challenge for The government is to ensure the tip is not so much that it over-burdens the health care sector. "

The Virus is mild and not a problem to ask for more?

An argument against a deadly second wave of virus is less dangerous, as they can infect themselves better People .

Even HIV. The theory States that viruses are continuing to spread, if you Don 't they kill their host and, therefore, milder.

"But it is not guaranteed, it is a bit lazy, what are some virologists trot," said Prof Ball.

It is also something that takes place over long periods of time to time. More Than six months in the pandemic, There is no clear evidence The Virus has mutated to spread more or less deadly.

Prof Ball added: "I think The Virus is very good at The Minute . People often have very mild or asymptomatic infection, if you can transfer, then There is no reason to imagine coronavirus are required in order to mild. "

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coronavirus lockdown measures, coronavirus pandemic, infection, medical research

Source of news: bbc.com