James Gill

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It is Two Weeks since Boris Johnson announced the British lockdown, and there are signs that the rate of infection is starting to slow down, if not to death cases.

While The Number of people dying in hospital with coronavirus every couple of days is doubled, the numbers of confirmed cases and hospitalizations are slowing down.

The Daily death total will follow, say the scientists. But, they warn, we could still see record levels in The Coming days.

No let-up in The Number of new cases of death

in the last three weeks, The Number of new deaths have been reported, a doubling every three-and-a-half days. The chart below shows this, with The Daily numbers as a red bar against a straight black line, which is double that of constant, regular rate.

the figures are Not Every Day exactly in the trend. It dips on Mondays (for example, 23 and 30 March) when the weekend reported figures, with strong increases in The Following days.

In terms of the numbers, what counts "is the General trend, rather than The Day -numbers to-day," said James Gill , a lecturer at Warwick Medical School . The trend is worrying: if it would continue, we expect to see More Than 1,000 deaths per day very soon and 2000, A Day later This Week .

Why does it take so long to see an improvement in The Number of the dead?

all the infections that had stopped, The Day after the lockout, we would still see, are Also reported when there are new deaths, a month later.

It takes time to develop for an infection in the symptoms or a life-threatening disease, and it takes time for them to be treated even if the treatment, which finally ends In Death .

And after that deaths must be documented and reported, a process that can take more days and weeks in some cases. The reporting lag means that, if we do not pass The Peak , we might see it in the death to pay for a couple of days.

Social distance was introduced, before the blocking, So There is Some Hope that the effect of these measures can begin to show in The Coming weeks. Model builders and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine estimate that.

they calculated this could be The Ability of The Virus to reproduce itself, by a 75% decrease.

But while the lockdown measures are yet to show up in the death data, different numbers of notes on your effectiveness give.

New cases and hospital admissions are slowing down

Since Last Weekend , The Daily growth in new cases has fallen away from the long-term trend.

In The Middle of the week, new cases start to grow again, but at a slower pace than before.

The Number of new cases is rising again This Week , says Prof Keith Neal , an epidemiologist at the University of Nottingham. But that could be because more testing rates, in contrast to an increase of the infection.

Until The End of March, the testing was largely limited to patients in the hospital. As the government of the tests, more and more NHS staff, should we expect to see confirmed more cases.

Prof ' Neal says, we only get a clear picture of what happened, "if the government report, The Number of new confirmed cases is separated in the NHS workers of the cases patients".

The Number of patients in hospital in England with a coronavirus was also growing at a slower pace than before, in The Past week.

These figures for England mask regional differences: The Number of people in the hospital with Covid-19, which has started in London, growing the plateau but in The Midlands and in The North -West in the last few days.

Find out how many people have confirmed cases in your Area :

Lessons from abroad

China implemented a heavy lock in Wuhan and Hubei province, at The End of January, before you saw it 30 dead. The Number of deaths reported to increase Every Day , for almost three weeks, but have fallen since then.

Italy's national lockdown began at 8. March. About Two Weeks after that, The Number of deaths began to plateau, with The Most recent figures show a decline.

such As the United Kingdom, Italy, took measures to curb the spread of the epidemic, such as the early, targeted versions in The North -Italian cities, by The End of February, before the country-wide lockdown. It is possible that these measures could begin to smooth The Curve of deaths from The Effects of the wider lockdown visible.

The trends in The Number of deaths from China and Italy are the proof, to slow down the efforts to contain the spread of The Virus , and eventually reverse, the growth in The Number of deaths.

While it takes to feed a long time for a reduction of infections, by reducing The Number of deaths, The Number of confirmed cases of levelling are already off and the growth in the confirmed cases has slowed down.

coronavirus lockdown measures, coronavirus pandemic, nhs, social distancing, infection

Source of news: bbc.com