IHS Markit

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TV and film production has helped to boost the economy

The British economy is expected to avoid a recession After showing better-than-expected growth in the three months to the end of August.

The Office for National statistics said the economy would shrink too much, in September for the third quarter of a General contraction.

In just three months, the economy grew by 0. 3% as weak manufacturing was offset by the lively film and TV production.

Even so, that the economy unexpectedly contracted in the month of August by 0. 1%.

Why The Talk about a recession?

defines the observed growth rates should be closely monitored for signs of a recession - as two consecutive quarters of contraction.

The next quarter runs until the end of September, so the August data is the second month in the third quarter.

Although the economy corrected shrank in August, the ONS upwards its forecast for growth in the July of 0. 3% to 0. 4%.

Andrew Wishart, UK economist at Capital Economics, said that this revision is feared meant "that the economy have been banished in a recession."

The ONS said the economy would contract by 1. Slipping 5% in September alone for the UK in the recession.

What has happened in the last three months?

The ONS uses the monthly data to compile a rolling three-month image of Gdp .

He said that in The First half of 2019, the data is volatile because of the preparations for the original British EU exit date in March, which had triggered some stocking.

Rob Kent-Smith, head of the Gdp for the ONS, said: "the growth increased in the last three months, despite a weak performance in manufacturing, with TV and film to boost production of the service sector help.

"the services [the] majority of the growth in the three months, the fall back with the production and manufacturing," he said.

in the course of the three months, the services sector makes up around 80% of Gdp , it rose from 0. 4%, After a period of largely flat growth in the last three months.

The ONS said that production fell by 0. 4% in the same period, while construction grew by 0. 1%.

So, why the economy shrinks in August?

For August, economists had expected zero growth.

But the ONS data showed that it contracted, pulled lower by a decline in manufacturing, if the car dampened production.

expanded not Only the construction industry in the course of the month, said Chris Williamson , chief business economist at Ihs Markit .

the production contract with 0. 7%, while the all-important services sector could not grow.

He described the August data as "disappointing".

you Have to save The Crown of great Britain out of the recession?

film and TV production, as the filming of The Crown - activated Gdp growth of 0. 3% in the three months to August, More Than compensation for any of the activity languish on the board in this month alone.

to cheer But that is no reason.

As The Bank of England has shown, the growth has lost momentum in The Past year, and the economy lags behind, rather than fly.

- part of this is undoubtedly Brexit in connection with investments the company insecurity, suffering in the midst of the ongoing. To spend a failure of companies, factories and machinery have long-reaching consequences. This is one reason why economists pull down their forecasts for the next year.

But it is also unhelpful that the growth in some of our largest trading partners, such as Germany, has problems. The light remains the Creation of jobs - But this could falter.

the inertia of a mood shift unleashed-makers in the political decision-making. The members of The Bank 's interest rate panel, the previously favored an increase in the cost of credit, you think now your next step is a cut - Deal or no Deal could be".

The question for you dealing with as much uncertainty as the rest of us, is when.

What does it mean for The Future ?

The data, some economists, sparked revise its expectations for the third quarter.

Mr Wishart said the economy would grow by 0. 4% in the third quarter, More Than he originally expected.

But said John Hawksworth , chief economist at PwC, that, while the data "has to be put to bed fears that the UK economy will fall into recession in the third quarter of 2019," he was cautious about The Future .

He said there could be "problems in the fourth quarter increased Brexit-Related uncertainty takes a toll on both business investment and consumer confidence. "

the uncertainty about Brexit is also the speech of Mr. Williamson was. who expects the UK to expand by 1% in the year 2019, But only 0. 5% in the year 2020.

"These growth projections assume a Brexit delay on the 31. October and UK and EU will finally reach a comprehensive agreement on future relations. However, a no-Deal -UK EU exit is likely to throw the UK into a prolonged recession," he said.

office for national statistics, uk economy, economic effects of brexit, economic growth, economics

Source of news: bbc.com