Hurricanes

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Extreme events in the context of Climate Change , such as the heat wave in Europe occur in this year, earlier than expected, a ex-chief scientist.

Prof Sir David King , says he's shocked by The Number of Extreme events, and he called for the UK to advance their Climate Change goals of 10 years.

But the UN weather chief said with words Like "anxiety" might make Young People depressed and anxious.

activists argue That people act unless they are feeling anxious.

in an interview with the BBC, Prof king, a former chief scientific adviser to the government, said: “It is appropriate to have fear. We would rise in the predicted temperatures, But we could not see ahead of, these kinds of Extreme events we will be getting it soon. "

He said The World had changed, faster than generally predicted in the fifth assessment report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2014.

He referred, in particular, to the loss of land ice and Sea Ice , and The Weather Extreme , in which he played said warming is likely to have a role.

Several other scientists contacted, the support of the BBC, its emotional language.

The physicist Prof Jo Haigh from Imperial College London, said: “David king is right to be afraid – I'm afraid of. "

“We do the analysis, we think what's going to happen, then publish them in a very scientific manner.

"Then we have a human response to this... and it is scary. "

Petteri Taalas , the Secretary-General of The World Meteorological organization (WMO), a specialized UN Agency, said That he targets a United Nations -backed climate, But he criticized radically-green fighters for the prediction of the end of The World .

It is the latest Chapter in the long debate about how the communication of climate science to The Public .

emotional language of Young People leave depressed?

Dr. Taalas true polar ice is melting faster than expected, But he is concerned That The Public fear can lead to paralysis, and also to Mental Health problems in Young People .

“We are fully committed to climate research and the (forthcoming) New York climate summit," he said.

“But I want to stick to the facts, which are very convincing and dramatic enough. We should avoid it, is to interpret it too much.

“When I was young, we were afraid of nuclear war. We seriously thought, it is better to have no children.

“I have the feeling, the same mood among Young People in the moment. So we have to be a bit careful with our communication style. "

He said most of the changes have been in the IPCC-forecast - although Some were Like the polar ice at the upper end of The Range .

The polar scientist Andrew Shepherd of Leeds University, agreed with this assessment.

He also said scientists should usually avoid emotional terms: "I would not use the term (scary) in General, But it is quite surprising to see, record (or near record) losses of ice. 2019, a bad year for the earth to ice. "

It seems, however, That Some scientists believe That your communication actions in The Past to provoke fails an emotional reaction That would convince The Public to.

The Telegraph reported That psychologists work with the University of Bath y.

But seem to Some scientists To Believe That your communication actions in The Past to provoke fails an emotional reaction That would convince The Public to.

scientists Do agree That Climate Change is scary?

We tested Prof King's views with the most important authors of the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), released in the year 2014.

The consensus among those who responded That climate had models accurately predict the increase in global average temperature.

But the models were not sufficiently sophisticated to anticipate events such as this year, the Extreme European heat wave or the slow-moving storm Dorian as "exceptional" and a "nightmare scenario".

Others mentioned; Tasmania suffering record droughts and floods in successive years; and never before in a year.

Changes "anticipated for decades,'

Gerald Meehl, a senior scientist at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, USA, has told us, he's anticipating changes Like this for four decades, would not, even though he was sure when they would arrive.

"I said, a feeling of numbness inevitability of it all," he said.

Some of The Scientists we contacted, believe That governments would do whatever was necessary to save the climate of the time.

are you worried That Global Warming of just over 1C so far has already been a new normality, in the historical temperature records, you will inevitably often defective. This is the predictable side of Climate Change .

Prof king argues That Some changes were not predicted well.

What is the science behind the Extreme weather events?

The loss of ice in Antarctica with, for example, is in the upper Range of the projections of the IPCC-AR5. And there are plates of ice loss in Greenland

Then there is this year, the French heat wave.

Extreme and persistent temperatures in France In July

Dr. Friederike Otto of Oxford University led to periods of drought in Some areas, is an expert in the attribution of Extreme events to Climate Change .

you told us That in a pre-Climate Change world, a heat wave Like this hit once in 1,000 years.

In a post-warming world, the heat wave was a one-in-a-100-years phenomenon.

In other words, the natural variability is amplified by human-caused climate warming.

"With the European heat waves, we have realized That Climate Change is a total game-changer," She Said . "The probability (of events) increases, by orders of magnitude. "

the researchers had not yet had time to investigate, the connections between all of The Major Extreme weather events and Climate Change , She Said .

With Some phenomena, such as droughts and floods, there was no clear evidence of a participation as a result of Climate Change .

And it was impossible to be sure That the slow progress of the Dorian was caused by Climate Change .

'We cannot wait for scientific certainty,'

Prof king said The World could not wait for scientific certainty on events such as the Hurricane Dorian . "Scientists Like to be sure," he said.

“But these events are all about probably. What is the probability That (Dorian ) is a Climate Change event? I'm going to say, ‘very high'.

“I can't say That with 100% certainty, But what I can say is That the energy comes from The Hurricane from the warm sea and if the sea gets warmer, we need to expect more energy in The Hurricane . "

He continued: "If you are crashing in a plane with a one in 100 chance, would you be scared to be appropriate.

“But we are experimenting with the climate in a way That raises the probabilities of very serious consequences, much More Than That . "

Hurricane Dorian packing wind speeds of 295km/h (185mph), when it made landfall the UK to bring climate goals in The Past ?

Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter said, he would have been surprised by the onslaught of weather extremes. He said he expected That Extreme events forecast by the IPCC But had not expected you so quickly.

Prof king said The Situation was so serious That the United Kingdom should bring the date for the reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases to almost zero from 2050 to 2040.

Some of the IPCC scientists, we had not contacted his urge, with the audience on an emotional level.

the Others agreed with him.

Prof John Church of the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia, told us: "Some things seem to be happening faster than predicted. This can partly be read in conjunction with the interaction of Climate Change and natural variability as well as the uncertainty in our understanding and our projections

“change In My Own area, the level of the sea, the things are happening in the vicinity of the upper end of the forecasts.

“What is scary is the lack of adequate response is. Our continued lack of action commits, to change The World , the main and essentially irreversible. "

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Source of news: bbc.com