Global Outbreak

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Everyone wants to know how well your Country is the fight against coronavirus in comparison with others. But you have to ensure That you compare the Same things.

The United States , for example, has Far More Covid-19 deaths than any other Country - as of 20 April, of the cases, a total of over 40,000 deaths.

But the United States has a population of 330 million people.

If you take The Five largest countries in Western Europe - the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain - their combined population is about 320 million Euro.

And the total number of registered coronavirus deaths from those five countries, as of 20 April, was over 85,000, More Than twice as high as That of the United States .

So, the individual statistics don't tell the whole story. to be

For comparisons to be useful, says Rowland Kao, professor of Data Science at the University of Edinburgh, there to take into account two major problems.

"Not the underlying data That mean the Same thing? And it makes sense to compare two sets of numbers, if the epidemiology is all The Other factors surrounding the spread of the disease] different?"

Count of death cases

let's look at Some of the numbers first. There are differences in how countries Covid-19 deaths draw.

France, for example, includes deaths in nursing homes in the heading, the numbers it produces each day, But The Daily figures for England include only deaths in hospitals.

According to the criticism, the government chart now has a line for deaths in hospitals, and a line for all deaths (in nursing homes) - But there is a time lag on this, the last set of numbers.

There is also no internationally recognized standard for how you measure the deaths, or their causes.

someone must have been tested for coronavirus to count for the statistics, or are the suspicions of a doctor enough? The Virus is the main cause of death, or count of any mention on a certificate of death?

Are you really compare like with like?

mortality rates

There is a lot of focus on the death rates, But also.

is the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases - all people who test positive for the coronavirus, how many to die?

But several countries are testing, in very different ways. The United Kingdom has mainly people tested who are sick enough to be hospitalized. Can, That the death-rate is much higher than in a Country That had a broader Test program.

the More Tests a Country conducts, the More people will find That coronavirus with only mild symptoms or perhaps no symptoms at all.

So, the mortality rate in confirmed cases is not the Same as the General death rate.

Another measurement is how many deaths have occurred, compared with the size of the Country population - The Number of deaths per million people, for example.

But which is intended to be part of what has been achieved on the stage of the outbreak to a single Country . If a Country was the first case earlier, in the Global Outbreak , then it needs to grow longer for your victim to pay.

The British government compares how each Country has evolved since the recording of his 50th death, But this also poses Some problems

A Country , That 's enough for 50 people died later should have More time to prepare for The Virus and reduce the eventual Death Toll .

When considering these comparisons, it is important to remember That the vast majority of people will be infected with coronavirus recover.

Political factors

It is difficult to have confidence in the data, which come from countries with tightly-controlled political system.

Is The Number of deaths recorded So Far in countries such as China or Iran exactly? We know it's not really.

is Calculated as number of deaths per million of the population, China's numbers are extremely low, self.

So, can we really trust the data?

population factors

There are real differences in the population in different countries. The demography of a particularly important -things like average age, or where people live.

comparisons were made between The United Kingdom and The Republic of Ireland, But they are problematic. Ireland has a much lower population and a much larger percentage of The People live in rural areas.

It makes More sense to compare Dublin City and County with an urban area in the UK of about the Same size (such as Merseyside), than to try to compare the Two Countries as a whole.

you must also make sure That you compare like with like in terms of the age structure.

A comparison of death rates between countries in Europe and Africa would not necessarily work, because the countries in Africa tend to have a much younger population.

We know That older people are much More likely to die from Covid-19.

Various health services

On The Other hand, most European countries have health care systems That funded better than in most African countries.

And also a effect on how badly a Country is a coronavirus, so factors such as how easily the different cultures, adapt to social distancing.

health systems appear to play a crucial role in the attempt to control a pandemic, But they are not all the Same .

"Do people actively seek treatment, how easy is it, to the hospitals, you have to pay to be treated well? All of these things vary from place to place," says Prof Andy Tatem from the University of Southampton.

Another huge factor is the degree of comorbidity - That is, The Number of other conditions, such as diabetes, heart disease or high blood Pressure - have The People already, if you are infected.

Test

countries That have a lot of Tests early in the pandemic, and it is followed by tracing of the contacts of everyone That was infected, it seems, were The Most successful at slowing the spread of the disease So Far .

Germany and South Korea had Far less deaths than in The Most affected countries

The Number of tests per head of the population can tell a meaningful statistical prediction, lower death rates.

But not all of the Test data is the Same - Some countries collect tested, The Number of people, while The Other data set, the total number of tests (a lot of people need to be tested More Than once to get an accurate result). to test

The timing, and whether the examinations took place largely in hospitals or in the community, must also be taken into account.

Germany and South Korea tested on aggressive very early on, and learned a lot about how The Virus spread.

But Italy also has a lot of tests, suffered a relatively high number of deaths. Only in Italy has significantly increased its capacities for testing after the pandemic had already taken possession. The UK is to do the Same thing.

comparisons are difficult to

So, everything is useful, probably all of these comparisons?

"What is it you want to know why a Country can be better than The Other , and what you can learn from it," says Prof Jason Oke of the University of Oxford.

"And testing seems The Most obvious example So Far . "

But until this outbreak is over, it will not be possible to know for sure which countries have better life with The Virus .

"This is when we really says the lessons for the Next Time ," Prof Oke.

reality check, coronavirus pandemic

Source of news: bbc.com