Dudley North photograph

Dudley North

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Member of parliament Ian Austin
Major settlement Dudley
Number of members 1
European Parliament constituency West Midlands
ElectorateDecember 2010
Replaced byDudley East
Dudley West
Date of Reg.
Date of Upd.
ID833531
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About Dudley North


Dudley North is a constituency represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2005 by Ian Austin of the Labour Party. Following his resignation from Labour on 22 February 2019, Austin now sits as an Independent.

Can fire-hit Crooked House rise from the ashes?

Can fire-hit Crooked House rise from the ashes?
Sep 8,2023 9:41 pm

... Marco Longhi, MP for Dudley North, also fiercely supports the rebuild and has spoken in Parliament calling for debate to look at legislation to protect heritage pubs...

MP pledges to push for Crooked House law

MP pledges to push for Crooked House law
Aug 16,2023 4:51 pm

... Marco Longhi, Conservative MP for Dudley North, said he would love to see a Crooked House law protect other venues from the same fate...

Crooked House owners' links to previous major fire

Crooked House owners' links to previous major fire
Aug 15,2023 4:01 pm

... Dudley North MP Marco Longhi said a public meeting at Himley Hall on Wednesday at 18:00 BST would be a chance for concerned residents to " vent their anger" and voice ideas for the building s future...

Crooked House scandal 'must be catalyst for change'

Crooked House scandal 'must be catalyst for change'
Aug 11,2023 8:31 am

... " Marco Longhi, MP for Dudley North, said he would campaign to close a " potential loophole" which could prevent the destruction of property during a potential criminal investigation...

Landmark 'wonky' Crooked House demolished

Landmark 'wonky' Crooked House demolished
Aug 7,2023 5:30 pm

... On Monday, West Midlands mayor Andy Street Former Labour MP for Dudley North, Lord Ian Austin, an independent peer, tweeted it emerged during Saturday s events the " lane to the pub" was " apparently blocked"...

'Questions need answering' over Crooked House fire

'Questions need answering' over Crooked House fire
Aug 7,2023 9:11 am

... Former Labour MP for Dudley North, Lord Ian Austin, an independent peer, tweeted that it emerged during Saturday s events the " lane to the pub" was " apparently blocked"...

Theresa May says asylum plan won't solve illegal migration issue

Theresa May says asylum plan won't solve illegal migration issue
Mar 13,2023 7:11 pm

... " Marco Longhi, who represents Dudley North, said the bill would act as a deterrent for people undertaking " very perilous journeys"...

Election results 2019: Opinion poll accuracy holds up

Election results 2019: Opinion poll accuracy holds up
Feb 16,2020 9:10 am

... The biggest swings came in areas that had voted strongly for Brexit in the 2016 referendum - constituencies like Bassetlaw, Dudley North, Redcar and Great Grimsby...

Election results 2019: Opinion poll accuracy holds up

Feb 16,2020 9:08 am

After several elections where the polls as a whole were not a good guide to the result, This Time they got it right.

The Final figures in the BBC Poll tracker were very close to the actual result, as the table below shows,

Poll accuracy (GB polls)PartyPredicted resultActual resultConservatives43%45%Labour33%33%Liberal Democrats12%12%SNP4%4%Greens3%3%Brexit3%2%Source for predicted result: BBC Poll tracker

That's a very good Performance - just a small underestimate of the Conservative share and a slight overestimate for the Brexit Party , with The Other parties on The Nose .

Many of The Polling companies had individual polls that were close to the result. But first prize should probably go jointly to Opinium and Ipsos Mori , whose final published polls were almost exactly correct.

There was some evidence of the polls narrowing in The Final couple of weeks but The Polling companies that showed that most were the least successful at estimating The Final result.

Furthermore, the polls were also consistently right to point to Conservative strength with Leave-supporting voters.

The biggest swings came in areas that had voted strongly for Brexit in the 2016 referendum - constituencies like Bassetlaw, Dudley North , Redcar and Great Grimsby. In areas that voted strongly for Remain, the Conservative vote share Fell .

Party support: 11 December 2019 Party Average (%) Likely range CON 43 (39-47) LAB 33 (29-37) LD 12 (8-16) SNP 4 --* BRX 3 (0-7) GRN 3 (0-7) PC 0 --* UKIP 0 --* TIGfC 0 --* Trend line showing Average voting intention, based on individual polls * Because the SNP and Plaid Cymru only campaign in Scotland and Wales respectively, and UKIP and The Independent Group for Change are standing candidates in so few areas, the margins of error for their support across Great Britain is likely to be less than +/- 1%

Still hard to predict seats

What proved much harder was using polls to forecast how many seats each party would win. That is always difficult because of the unpredictable nature of the first-past-the-post electoral system.

In 2017, YouGov's seat projection, using a technique called MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification), was very successful. But This Time around, its final seat analysis wasn't So Close . Even where the share of the vote is known, it's not always possible to estimate accurately what The House of Commons will look like.

That's where came into its own - getting very close to an accurate prediction of the size of the Conservative majority.



Source of news: bbc.com

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