Whatever Happens

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"I think that on trade issues," said the French Foreign Minister , Jean-Yves le Drian, "we will tear each other apart. "

The War of words over a possible trade agreement between the UK and the EU is the heating.

But that's to be expected.

And behind the scenes, a huge amount of work that will prepare for what could be a bruise couple of months.

"At the end of this year," said the Britain-in-chief Brexit negotiation leader, David Frost , in a speech in Brussels: "we [are] the recovery of the political and economic independence in full - want to why are we moving it? This is The Point of Brexit. "

So, what must you think, if you the preparation for the trade negotiations?

"What do you want? This is probably The First thing that she says to be absolutely Crystal Clear ," Emily Jones, who leads the global economic governance programme at the Blavatnik School, Oxford University.

"There are a lot of trade-offs in trade offer and it is really important to be clear about what your priorities are and how you rank them. "

Fishing is a good example. It is a tiny part of the total economy in the UK and the EU, But both sides have already passed it, you see it as a priority.

So, what could be both sides willing to admit, to get to that in a sector, what you want in another?

It is worth to remind that most of the offers are about the get rid of obstacles to trade, and is moving closer Together - But this negotiation is about moving further apart.

landing zone

It is also important to know what it wants to reach The Other side at the negotiating table.

To do that, you need to understand the policies they are dealing with and the legal and institutional constraints to which they are exposed.

"It is important to know what will look The Final agreement," Ms Jones says, "you need to define The Landing zone. "

A deal must be acceptable for both sides; otherwise, in the end it will fail. This is The Core of the UK argument that the EU must see this as a negotiation between sovereign equals.

realism

of course, there will be more lurid headlines about the trade in the coming months.

But in the end, After All the shouting, if both sides need a deal, there must be realism about what can be achieved.

"I'm afraid not, we are as ready as we want to be," says Alan Winters, Director of UK Trade Policy Observatory", and the pressure of time is very authentic. "

"We are only going to receive a limited number of things done, and we should be realistic About That . "

Most industry experts believe that Whatever Happens in this year to come, the negotiations continued for some time.

"are The difficult things, where regulations are concerned," said Mr Winter says.

"So is it in service, industry regulations, food safety, chemicals and so on. It is quite simple, cut the rates to zero; it is all The Other stuff that takes time. "

transparency

The temptation must be to push can be called on the things behind the scenes, however, the recent history of farming in the negotiations shows a lot of intelligence, a hostile reaction.

In 2016, tens of thousands of Europeans marched against the TRANS-Atlantic trade and investment partnership (TTIP), a proposed free-trade agreement between the EU and the United States , which has now been abandoned.

"It was a violent counter-reaction," says Bernardine Adkins, head of the EU trade law at the lawyers Gowling Wlg . And teach, which will then be taken on the transparency should be on Board now.

"you may have some of The Details to be kept secret," she says, "But you must, and keep touching base with all their stakeholders - not only with business, But with consumers and trade unions. "

Serious discussions on trade with the United Kingdom is mostly limited to meetings of experts or government meeting behind closed doors.

for comparison: the USA has already held public consultations on a possible trade deal with Britain and the EU published the detailed text of his draft of the negotiating mandate.

In London there is certainly a sense of anticipation - and the government says, it will be their plans in detail in written form.

"We have never done anything like this before," Mr Winter says. "In a sense, it is very exciting and, Together with the enthusiasm of a degree of terror. "

national conversation

And there are bigger problems.

such As trade agreements to fit in with other foreign policy goals such as security or with other national priorities, such as the reduction of regional inequality or the decarbonisation of the economy?

"We need as a society to have a national conversation about the means in the UK", Mrs Jones says.

"My deep concern at the minute is that we will be doing trade agreements that lock us up in The Medium term or even long-term, without worrying about all your options. "

time of printing

The post-Brexit transition period expires at the end of this year, so the time is really short.

Leaving the single market and the customs Union, which has made the greatest economic change in This Country in at least 50 Years .

But there is No Doubt that change brings opportunities.

In his speech in Brussels, Mr Frost said the UK would be to be able to far more agile than the EU in The Future and make better use of new developments in the global economy.

"will the UK be able to experiment, to correct errors and improve," he said. "The EU find it much, much harder. "

There are no guarantees that at the beginning of each negotiation process, though, where it finally at the end.

reality check, trade, brexit

Source of news: bbc.com