The Point

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Relaxing lockdown in England, the pressure on the "R is to increase The Number "

warnings coronavirus were you could. in the North-West and South-West of England

Some scientists say, the R-series is creeping across the country and may have surpassed - The Point at which the epidemic takes off again - in these regions.

Tameside Council has "strongly" advised not to open the schools on Monday.

The government insists The Number is higher than anywhere in the country.

So, what is it? How worried we need to be? And what it means for the lifting of the lockdown?

Quick, what is the R-number is again?

It is The Number of people each infected person, on average, The Virus .

If the R three, Then 10 people, 30 others will infect is. But if R is 0. 5, the 10 people, only five would infect.

A R a, is the critical threshold. Everything low, and an epidemic is in decline, But if it goes higher Then the cases are increasing exponentially.

What do The Scientists say?

The R is steadily increasing in England.

A team of Public Health England (PHE) and says this was the clear pattern in your data, the since 11. May, if.

your results suggest, we are now balanced on The Edge of a knife.

"Both in the North-West and South-West only spans about a, But all of the regions," said Dr. Paul Birrell, One of the researchers.

But this is only a mathematical model, and there is great uncertainty in the figures. The PWT data is a number between 0. 72 and 1. 2 for London.

The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine approved the South-west One , But paints a more optimistic view of the rest of England and their R-number for the North-west is only 0. 8.

"Overall, I would say, we see R is insidious," says Dr. Sebastian Funk, of the London School, told The Bbc .

they also say that the R-number is 0. 8 in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland .

Is a disaster for the lifting of the lockdown?

It would be easy to say "Yes, But the reality is confusing, and it is important to understand what changes in R.

drives"It's complicated, the reasons are varied and difficult to unravel," Dr. Funk told me.

The simplest explanation is that The Virus spread in fact more. As the PHE report says: "We believe that this is likely to be due to the increasing mobility and the mixing between the private house and the public, and on-the-job settings. "

But it may be due to a counter-intuitive nature of mathematics, lockdown a success, cases, and R goes up.

If the cases happen to collapse in the Community , But they are slower to think in nursing homes and hospitals, what we also, is - Then these areas are secure by pulling the R-number, even if The Situation improves.

And to appear when your low level of infection, which can be all of the estimates are more uncertain and to make R higher.

"It is a strange thing about R, it tells you the rate of change, and after all The Way down, you can not have R to a low level," says Dr. Funk.

Why is the government says: R is below a everywhere?

There is no perfect way of measuring-R.

The government is seeking advice from several theoretical groups, including the two mentioned above, which all appreciate, the figure from different angles. Some more positive, others more negative, views of the R.

It is the object of the Forecast that come from the government's group of scientific advisors, led by chief science advisor Sir Patrick Vallance , in order to build an overall picture.

The official position is the R for the whole of the United Kingdom is between 0. 7 and 0. 9. Sage sources say, from your point of view, there is no region, the a " R " a are, however, some areas are "very close".

Sir Patrick has warned consistently, and publicly, there is little room for manoeuvre in easing lockdown as the R is on the threshold.

How important these numbers are and how concerned we should be.

The First point is The Number of cases is also essential. A high R is more of a problem if there are a lot of virus around.

"R must not be taken in isolation about the current threat situation," said Dr. Birrell.

The South-West has always been relatively few cases - currently 778 infections A Day , according to PHE. However, Dr Birrell says the North-west - 4.170-degree infections of the day - more "worrying".

Also, relaxing lockdown of the pressure on the "R is to increase The Number of". From the school, the children are back in the class room, the companies will be re-opened and we can see more and more people, while maintaining social distance.

it is expected The Full Effect of these is reflected in the official data in The Coming weeks.

Dr. Funk said: "We are pretty close to R equal to One , no matter which way you look at it, we are lifting the restrictions, and if we see a sustained R greater than One , Then we need to Do Something about it.

"A Day above, nothing to do with me, a couple of weeks does. "

The Next stage of controlling coronavirus will depend on getting a detailed picture of what is Happening up and down the country.

The Plan is to use the "local lock out feature" that the target can be a Cluster of cases are associated to a company or a nursing home.

But this requires an even more accurate picture of what's going on, as in these models. PHE lump in the North-East and Yorkshire in a region. It is a neat 190 km journey from Sheffield to Berwick-upon-Tweed.

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Source of news: bbc.com