The Path

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What is the Italy-epidemic tell us how the outbreak will unfold elsewhere?

deaths and confirmed cases of coronavirus in the UK doubles every Three Days , and on Friday, the country in The Number of deaths experienced its largest increase So Far .

models of the epidemic are very different estimates, the toll of his potential permanent death of tens of thousands to one on Friday was projected to be published, a number of less than 7,000.

So How To make sense of the projections, and what do you do with the pattern of the coronavirus Death Toll in other countries tell us about what might come next in the UK?

How about in UK?

Confirmed cases in the UK every three or four days will be doubled. Deaths are growing faster, doubling every two or Three Days .

do not show This data, all of the cases, only those confirmed. This is because the test is only performed on those who are sick enough to be hospitalized, and not those with mild symptoms, and so the true number of cases is higher.

experts in The Field would expect that these broad cases follow a similar pattern, doubling every couple of days. This is because The Virus to multiply and to do so, The Number of people infected by them. They keep multiplying with a constant rate, until you run to infect people, or measures to prevent further spread of the disease effectively.

It is difficult to see, to see this constant multiplication from the diagram above, but it's easier if you draw the same figures in a different scale.

On the scale shown below, a straight line means "double at a constant speed". We have added a dotted leader lines on the diagram to show what could be expected if cases or deaths were all two or Three Days will be doubled.

In fact, doubled fluctuate speeds often, until an epidemic reaches a large enough number, say 100 cases. Since that time, confirmed cases have doubled in the UK all 3. 3 Days .

fortunately, there are not enough deaths in the UK for us is a constant trend of 100, so our trend-draw line starts from the 10.

At The Moment , The Number of deaths is rising faster than the confirmed cases, doubling every 2. 5 days.

As of the 27. March, has seen the United Kingdom, 759 death. When doubling the speed, still, we would expect to see a further 750 deaths in The Following Three Days and 1500 in the 2. 5 days after that. But is that the speed is faster or slower in the UK than in other countries?

in the UK in the same way as Italy?

Italy has The Most advanced epidemic in Europe, with The Most confirmed cases and The Most deaths.

in the cut is The Number of deaths in Italy every Three Days , but masks doubled that quick growth for The First 1,000 deaths, followed by a slower pace of growth, suggesting that The Course of the epidemic changes.

In other European countries, the early numbers of deaths, even after the pattern of doubling every two to Three Days .

A notable exception is Spain, where The Number of deaths seems to be faster than elsewhere (all two-and-a-quarter-days), as well as their past than 1,000 death, although it is unclear why.

this means that the UK is only a couple of weeks behind, a bit like in Italy? May not. Each country has a different health system and take various measures to control the spread of The Virus . The Number of deaths depends on the spread of The Virus and The Treatment that people can access when they have it.

The Future of each country depends on the actions of the governments and the citizens.

7,000 death?

analysis of Rachel Schraer, health reporter

A projected, which would be less than die of 7,000 people, of Corona Virus in the UK as a whole. This number is much lower than that in the modelling used by the government.

So how do you get your numbers? These projections, Prof Tom pike used, the trajectory of the death figures in China, in order to predict the progress of the United Kingdom and other countries " outbreaks.

But experts on viruses and epidemics have warned, under the assumption that countries will follow the same path, even if there are similarities in the early figures from each country.

There are some things that are anywhere in The World , how long The Virus needs to be infectious diseases in the body of someone. However, as an outbreak can develops after that depends on what measures countries take, and when they act, and China had it's limitations sooner than many other countries.

Small Changes in the rate of infection add up over time to large reductions in The Number of new infections.

the scientists expect to infect each infected person is about 2. 5 Other People on average. As each of them infect 2 more. 5, and so on, a month multiplied by the speed leads to More Than 400 new infections.

half of the mean rate of infection that after a month, we would expect to see only 15 new infections - a 95% reduction. This is because a small difference in the infection builds up the rate and builds to a Big Difference in The Number of people infected.

The Path of the epidemic in China and South show Korea how it is possible to slow down the spread.

China implemented a heavy lock in Wuhan and Hubei province, at the end of January, before you saw 30 deaths. At this point, the epidemic is growing rapidly. About 10 days later, The Number of deaths started to slow down to slow down to a doubling every Three Days , and now grows much slower than that.

The total number of deaths has been increasing, but The Number of new deaths per day has to be slowed down and eventually reduced.

South Korea and Japan never saw the same growth in The Number of deaths than in other countries. They grew slower, to double the takeover of a week.

South Korea quickly, the examination and prosecution on a large scale began was isolated, with nearly 30 hospitals where suspected or confirmed cases.

when will we see a change?

Prof Neil Ferguson from Imperial College, developed the modeling used, which says of the government, that it will take time before any measures such as social distance, have an effect.

people who are infected, incubate The Virus , symptoms develop, worsen and require treatment in the hospital, before you get confirmed as carrying The Virus . After that, it takes time before a case reaches The Stage where intensive care, And Then to be successful, or someone dies.

The Number of confirmed cases can give a touch earlier, because it takes less time to reach test as the result of the death.

It is only a note, because the changes in the test, the policy or the capacity can change, The Number of confirmed cases.

However, Professor Colin Baigent of Oxford University says that The Evidence lock work feature.

coronavirus pandemic, public health

Source of news: bbc.com