Korean War

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Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un shakes hands in the DMZ in June

Kim Jong-un has a big decision to make.

conversations with Donald Trump not gone to plan. Stringent economic sanctions remain in force, and Washington does not seem to budge despite Pyongyang's insistence the fact that you have a different offer to resolve the nuclear program until the end of the year.

Donald Trump , she also seems to be frustrated. He has Once Again hinted at the possibility of military Action against North Korea if necessary, even if its "good relationship" with the North Korean leader.

the next few weeks can be crucial that the U.S.-North Korean diplomacy.

"I think we will see the beginning of what could be said is a return to a familiar crisis in 2020," Ankit Panda, a North Korea expert at The Federation of American scientists, the BBC.

", We begin to see the scenario that many of us had warned from the get-go, the diplomacy: a Moody and irritable Trump confrontation with the reality of reality TV-diplomacy with North Korea . "

nervous, and Christmas threat despite obscures the "reality TV" nature of Trump and Kim's summitry and shake your hands, in a surprise visit to the North -South Korean border in June, South Korea , once described the US President the decision, with Kim Jong-un as "brave".

Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in, the hands on mount Paektu in North Korea , gave, with their wives beside them, His approach was unconventional, She Said , but there was hope that maybe This Time things would be different.

in Just 15 months, the government, the heads of the North and The South were holding hands on mount Paektu, optimistic that they would be able to come to some sort of agreement, and finally at the end of the Korean War .

that hope has gone now.

Pyongyang rejects talks with Seoul. Last week, North Korea 's artillery exercises near the Maritime border with The South , Kim Jong-un ' s request. This is a violation of a military agreement between the Two Countries in the past year.

The South has every reason to be careful, if the North is located in the vicinity of this boundary. In November 2010, North Korea 's people's army fired around 170 artillery shells and rockets at Yeonpyeong island, killing four South Koreans. There are now fears that tensions are beginning to ramp up Once Again .

There was no shortage of warning signs from the North is certainly Korea, where its diplomatic relations with Washington and Seoul, the title is.

The last came at the beginning of This Week . Vice-Foreign Minister Ri Thae Song hinted that The Regime could be long-range missile tests in the next couple of weeks, if Washington refused to change its negotiating position, and said, "it is entirely up to US, what a gift for Christmas," - a phrase that was almost certainly picked up by the U.S. press-pack design.

Then, Once Again , the Supreme leader got back on his White Horse , and Mt Paektu, North Korea climbed, the most Holy mountain. The images and prose in the state media, were rich in political and ideological messaging.

dozens of photos showed him plowing through The Snow on His Way to the "revolutionary" mountain top. The Visit comes at a time when "the imperialists and class enemies can be a hectic attempt to undermine make, the ideological, revolutionary and class positions of our party", the North Korean leader is quoted with the words.

The Statement added that he is getting his people ready for "the hard and protracted character of Our Revolution ".

North Koreans are warned that difficult times lie ahead of us.

return of the Rocket Man ? Kim Jong-un is also convening a surprise meeting of his ruling party leader. North Korea 's strongest political Committee will be meeting to discuss the end of December, and to decide on critical issues." Simply put, it means nothing good. It is possible, Mr. Kim is already convinced that the talks with the United States to work, and the hand is always ready, and new orders.

So is ready to make a return?

North Korea has repeatedly fired rockets all over the 2019, Some would argue that he never left. This year, a North Korean traffic was most extensive in relation to the audit.

Kim Jong-un the small, impoverished state, which has been under strict international sanctions, has managed to develop three new missile systems, all of which have been tested since.

"All the rockets have several things in common," Vipin Narang , a security studies professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told me earlier this year.

"are they solid fuels, they are mobile, they are fast, they fly low, and at least the CN-23 can maneuver during the flight, which is very impressive.

"one of the rockets can be a challenge for the regional and ROK missile on the basis of these characteristics. Together, they make A Nightmare . "

But all 13 starts in 2019 were brushed off Mr. Trump. After All , Mr. Kim, and his promise had not kept to test long-range weapons or nuclear bombs.

However, the North Korean leader also hinted that this promise had an expiration date and that the moratorium on testing would end on December 31, if there is no agreement with the United States .

Sat start? Kim Jong-un might think that, if he wants to go back to win, the US President, the attention and the pressure on him for a better offer, he's going to have to go bigger and bolder. There are also different components of its new short-range missiles, he may be eager to try on longer-range weapons.

A the start of a satellite would be. It would not be to break technically, his promise, and it would be headlines, nationally and internationally.

Kim Jong-un in the past overlooked a space launch in the year 2016, when North Korea satellite into orbit ", to suggest The reasons that a satellite can launch that awaits us, multi-faceted," says Ankit Panda, "but roughly speaking, we have a number of indicators, including evidence of the work of the new SLVs [satellite launch vehicle] from 2017, and increased references to the space activities in state media this year.

"We are also overdue in view of the lack of serious space activities in spite of the well-kept space program in North Korea since 2016. "

careful. This place was one that North Korea had agreed to dismantle.

"We have not seen any activity that would indicate that there is a forthcoming examination," said Melissa Hanham, an expert on open source intelligence and the Director of the Datayo project at The One Earth Future Foundation.

"But it is still a fully functional system. You don't have the demo days of The Launch pad, you can always test missiles from there. "

observer keeping a watchful eye on the activities at The Launch site Sohae Another option for Pyongyang to try its new solid-fuel technology, on a longer-range missile. Melissa Hanham, said that this fuel type has tactical advantages and would track North Korea 's long-range missiles faster and more powerful.

"solid fuel rockets are easier to hide the surveillance and spy satellites, because they can be refueled and do not necessarily have a convoy with fuel vehicles, to recognize them for the satellite. They can also be saved, and you start faster than liquid-fuel rockets, since they are already fueled and ready to go. "

test But surely a long-range missile that could see Washington as a threat to the United States would risk angering an unpredictable Donald Trump ?

The US President declared the stand-off with North Korea as a "largely solved" in the last year. He can determine to make that a difficult claim in his re-election rallies when Pyongyang fire missiles capable of hitting Los Angeles .

"At best, North Korea is trying to negotiate with the United States , on its terms, through more public pressure and urgency. To not negotiate in the worst case, North Korea is really the intention, and try just laying The Public groundwork for Washington to Blame for an escalation of tensions, carry," said Mintaro Oba, a former Korea Desk Officer at U.S. Department of State.

"as always, North Korea is adept in the use of public funds, The Burden of Action and The Burden of the debt on the United States .

"say as Santa Claus , his gifts depend on you naughty or nice if he had little success in fact gifts, and he will probably put them on the naughty list. "

Rachel Minyoung Lee, an analyst at NK News, also believes North Korea has already given his opinion that the talks with the USA will not work.

"In fact, I have my doubts as to whether Pyongyang had a lot of confidence in a result, your diplomacy with the United States even before the Stockholm talks in October," She Said

Washington has played down the significance of North Korea 's year-end deadline. The U.S. special representative for North Korea , Stephen Biegun, calling it "artificial" and warned it would take a "big mistake and a missed opportunity" for North Korea that provocative steps.

It is true that Kim Jong-un-the plans are not yet clear, but all the signs from Pyongyang would suggest that you are serious about this countdown.

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Source of news: bbc.com